2006 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Round One

Well, it's that time of year where my physical and mental health is negatively impacted by a bunch of guys wearing skates and helmets playing a game for a living. Yes, the Stanley Cup playoffs. Here are some thoughts on the 1st round match-up.

Ottawa Senators






Tampa Bay Lightning







Synopsis:

Ottawa has only lost 2 of their last 20 games against Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay are the defending Stanley Cup champions.

Strengths:

Ottawa's large, mobile and physical defence should have a better time of it than most Eastern Conference teams in holding off Tampa Bay's roster of skilled, offensive forwards. Meanwhile, Ottawa's high-powered offense and special teams is facing off against an extremely inconsistent team defence and goaltending tandem.

On paper, Ottawa has a clear advantage.

Weaknesses:

Hockey games aren't played on paper.

The guy they picked up to take the Senators to the promised land, Dominik Hasek, is not going to be between the pipes for the puck drop. Rookie Ray Emery will have to shoulder the expectations of a city and a team that has come so close before. The team overall is a younger edition than the one that made it to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals back in 2002-2003, and has many guys on the roster who have never played in the playoffs, period.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay, despite some key changes, is virtually the same team and most of its roster has the kind of playoff experience that only Stanley Cup champions earn.

It's the intangibles in this series that will play a huge role, and whether Ottawa will be able to handle the pressure of playing the defending Cup champs as favorites. If Tampa Bay can dig deep and recapture the magic of last season, the Senators could buckle like a house of cards.

Players to Watch:

Zdeno Chara vs. Vincent Lecavalier: The huge defenceman will have his work cut out for him and will likely be asked to try and shutdown Vincent Lecavalier, one of the shiftiest forwards in the game who has speed and talent to go along with his own fairly large frame. Lecavalier is also one of the few who has actually fought Big Z, so you know he's not going to be intimidated. This match-up is one to watch.

Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson: With the return of Havlat, will Murray be tempted to put the big line back together again? In terms of potential playoff opponents, the Lightning with their inconsistent defence and goaltending may represent the best victim for this trio's amazingly skilled and dominant offensive play. However, Ottawa has had issues scoring in the post-season before, and the pressure will build quickly if these guys can't get it done. Scoring on the PP for these guys is a must. Spezza in particular is one to watch as some question his ability to play in the tighter-checking playoff environment.

Martin Havlat: Capable of disappearing for stretches of games, including last season's playoff series with the Leafs, Havlat missed most of the season with an injury but was showing dramatic signs of improvement in terms of his maturity and multi-dimensional talent when he did play. On the penalty kill, he was a constant thorn in the opposition and generated a breakaway or two EACH game. The last time he missed a series of games, he came back and scored 4 against Buffalo. He tends to play hungrier when being out for awhile, so hopefully this bodes well for the playoffs. He could have had a hat-trick in the game last night against the Rangers but his shot was still showing signs of rust.

Chris Phillips: Generally regarded as the most consistent Senator in terms of stepping up his play in the playoffs, he's unfortunately been sidelined for awhile with a fairly significant injury. When and how he returns could make a big difference in taking some of the pressure off of Chara and Redden as well as youngsters Meszaros and Volchenkov.

Martin St. Louis: Considering that he was the NHL's MVP last season and was awarded a massive contract for his performance, he has certainly disappointed this season. Flying under the radar after his slump was widely recognized, few noticed that his play has picked up dramatically in the weeks leading up to the playoffs. A dangerous forechecking with TONS of speed, he could make the lives of Ottawa's defence absolutely miserable. He's also a short-handed threat and plays with a lot of fire. If he and Lecavailer both peak at the same time, the Senators could be in trouble.

Brad Richards: PEI native and last year's Conn Smythe winner for playoff MVP, Brad is Tampa Bay's most consistent two-way forward and is expected to play as he always seems to do, smoothly and with a lot of intelligence. He's the third of Tampa's 3 Musketeers. Unlike perhaps Martin and Vincent, one can basically count on his play to be outstanding.

Mike Fisher, Antoine Vermette, Patrick Eaves, Peter Schaefer: A lot has been made of Ottawa's "one-line offense" but few have actually noticed the kind of production that the Senators can rely upon from their 2nd, 3rd and even 4th lines. All four of these players play a solid two-way game, can kill penalties and also have 20 goals apiece in the regular season. These are the difference-makers who can score that big momentum shifting goal. When the talent is burdened with the defensive focus of the other team, it's these guys who can shine when it counts.

Ray Emery vs. Shawn Burke and John Grahame: Not exactly a who's who of goaltenders, all three have shown signs of inconsistency throughout the season and none would be considered in the top 10 at the position in the Conference, let alone the league. Emery had a solid March and was both rookie of the month and defensive player of the month, but had difficulty in April when the team fell apart somewhat in front of him. Hasek could apparently win games Ottawa had no business being in, Emery has yet to show that ability. The plus side is the fact that Burke and Grahame, despite having more experience, have largely played worse over the season than Razor.

Conclusions:

Ottawa has to come out early in this series and set the tone. If they end up behind, the pressure on them would be enormous given the expectations. A first round exit is not acceptable for this team, particularly with the nemesis Leafs out of the picture, so any setback could lead to full-out panic. Tampa Bay, despite being Stanley Cup champs, are actually underdogs in this series, a position that will probably suit them quite well indeed after the magnifying glass of expectations in the regular season seemed to wilt their success. Not many Cup champs are underdogs the following year, and Ottawa must take care not to take them too lightly.